Devonshire Research Group, LLC (“Devonshire”) is an investment firm specialized in using large scale machine learning, data mining, and deep learning analytical methods across 1,000’s of datasets to determine the long-term viability of technologies, and to assess their competitive advantages.
A long time investor and observer of venture capital-backed and advanced technology companies, Devonshire is a strong believer that many companies and their investors take shortcuts in the race to build and demonstrate value. In today’s market of multi-billion dollar tech “Unicorns”, many investors push otherwise skilled entrepreneurs to over-hire and backfill capabilities rather than invest in building them organically or by acquisition. The “build vs. buy” decisions of old have been replaced by modern theories of “acquihire and pivot later.”
The tech industry has lost its kill switch. In a post-tipping point marketplace where scale is achieved faster than ever before, technology platforms have often become “winner-take-all” propositions. However, in a zero sum market, the displaced technologies are rarely priced accordingly: with “loser-lose-all” adjustments to their valuations. Devonshire specializes in finding companies whose products and technologies are over-hyped, whose research pipelines are past their prime, and whose competitors have achieved insurmountable – but often opaque – scale advantages.
Technology is frequently misunderstood and consequently valued by inappropriate drivers, including social media mentions, polished marketing presentations, and promotional hype. While fundamental analysis of other industries frequently involves classic financial analysis, tech sector valuations are rarely linked directly to operating or financial metrics. This makes classical multiple, financial, cash flow based valuations difficult, if not impossible assessments of enterprise value. Consequently, since the technologies underlying the company's reputation are difficult to analyze from a DCF perspective, valuation rarely has any fundamental component.
Devonshire has a different way to value tech companies, involving the analysis of decades of downloaded engineering, social, IP, legal, trade, and regulatory data. Rather than speculating on the movements of tech company valuations based on website, mobile app, or marketing hype, Devonshire uses deep data mining and semantic analytic methods to extract trends that don’t normally rise above the day-to-day noise of social media and press.
In a world of long-biased securities, long-only asset managers, and "long-short" fund managers whose portfolios are 2-4x biased long, the art of the short selling is a coveted, if not rare and disappearing skillset. Naively misbranded in media as "un-patriotic" and "evil", associated with "naked shorting", the short seller is frequently misunderstood. We believe the markets need a data-driven, "white-gloved" short seller persona, backed with world class analytics.
We've invested in building datasets and tools that focus exclusively on short selling, and we use these to uncover misvalued companies, expose strategic errors by management, and when necessary, bring these observations to the public investor. We believe investors deserve a better skeptic, to counter the overwhelming information overload of pitch decks, promotional schemes, and - in some cases - well-intentioned but strategically erroneous management plans.
Devonshire's investment strategy uses a combination of short-centric market-facing quantitative data, as well as vast datasets of bearish and short-side indicators. We aggregate these with an intentional bias towards uncovering and generating short side signals.
We follow our own investment advice. In the neverending debate between who to trust, short sellers who might just be seeking to profit from the depression of securities' prices out of their own self-interest, or independent research analyst might be simply in a marketing game to collect sell-side fees, we're taking a position. When we publish research, we invest our clients and our own money alongside the research. We disclose our strategy, and we have nothing to hide.
Devonshire's reputation and brand for quality counter-point narratives in a market full of hyperbole, click-bait, and media hype mean more than short term profits. Our goal is to pursue sustainable short centric alpha generation; that's the Devonshire Research Group edge.
Devonshire Research Group's Terms and Conditions, and Disclaimers
Devonshire Research Group ("Devonshire") is a FINRA-compliant, state Registered Investment Adviser. Investment advice is provided to Devonshire clients and subscribers only. Use of information obtained on this website is at investor's own risk. Devonshire assumes no liability for investment losses direct and indirectly resulting from recommendations made, implied, or inferred by its research. Likewise, Devonshire assumes no claim to investment gains direct or indirectly resulting from trading profits, investment management or advisory fees obtained by following investment recommendations made, implied, or inferred by its research. Investment involves risk, and all investments should be made with the supervision of a professional investment manager or advisor.
By using this website (the “Website”) you agree to the terms of this disclaimer. You agree that the use of the information on the Website is at your own risk. The Website is maintained by Devonshire Research Group, LLC (“Devonshire”), an investment adviser to funds and accounts that are in the business of actively buying and selling securities and other financial instruments.
The materials on the Website are not an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any investment, security or commodity, nor shall any security be offered or sold to any person, in any jurisdiction in which such offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. In no event should Devonshire be liable for any direct or indirect trading losses caused by any information available on this site. We use our Research and Newsletter to discuss investment ideas, and have no intention of soliciting prospective clients for any investment product or services.
Devonshire typically holds a position in some or all of the securities profiled on the Website and may profit or lose money based on the performance of any profiled security. Devonshire may change its views about, or its investment positions in any security, any time, for any reason or no reason. Devonshire may buy, sell, cover or otherwise change the form or substance of any of its investments at any time without notice. Devonshire disclaims any obligation to notify the market or any other party of any such changes.
Devonshire uses the Research and Newsletter sections of this website to discuss investment ideas and has no intention of soliciting prospective clients for any investment products or services. No portion of this website may be construed as a solicitation for investment, or public solicitation in any funds managed or advised by Devonshire clients.
Although Devonshire believes the statements it makes in the Website are substantially accurate in all material respects and do not omit to state material facts necessary to make those statements not misleading, Devonshire makes no representations, and specifically disclaims all warranties, express, implied, or statutory, regarding the accuracy, timeliness, or completeness of any material contained on the Website. Thus, Investors should conduct independent due diligence, with assistance from professional financial, legal and tax experts, on all securities, companies, and commodities discussed on this Website and develop a stand-alone judgment of the relevant markets prior to making any investment decision.
The information and opinions contained in the Website are based on information that Devonshire believes to be reliable and the vast majority of which comes from publicly available sources. Devonshire recognizes that there may be non-public information to which it does not have access that could lead others to disagree with Devonshire’s analyses and conclusions. The Website may contain forward-looking statements, which would include any statements that are not statements of historical fact, estimates, projections and opinions, all of which may prove to be substantially inaccurate and are inherently subject to significant risks and uncertainties beyond Devonshire’s control. Except where otherwise indicated, those statements speak as of the date made, and Devonshire undertakes no obligation to correct, update or revise those statements or to otherwise provide any additional materials.
The Website may also contain links to public filings, third party websites, articles and/or videos. Devonshire has not sought or obtained consent from any third party to use any statements or information, which are described in the Website as having been obtained or derived from statements made or published by third parties. Any such statements or information should not be viewed as indicating the support of such third party for the views expressed on the Website. No warranty is made that data or information, whether derived or obtained from filings made with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, any other regulatory agency or from any third party, are accurate.
All users agree and consent to exclusive jurisdiction and venue of any dispute or proceeding relating to or arising from the Website or any related subject matter in the Court to be selected by Devonshire. Devonshire shall have sole discretion to select the jurisdiction and venue at the time such dispute arises, and may change it at any time and without notice. As used herein, except to the extent the context otherwise requires, “Devonshire” includes its affiliates and funds and accounts it manages or advises and their respective partners, directors, officers, and employees.